Philosopher Alfred Nordmann criticizes the extrapolations used to argue for the singularity. I’m going to respond to arguments made in these essays and also mine them for signs of the oncoming singularity that we might track in the future. The essays in this issue of IEEE Spectrum use similar definitions for the technological singularity but variously rate the notion from likely to totally bogus.

The Digital Gaia Scenario: The network of embedded microprocessors becomes sufficiently effective to be considered a superhuman being.

The Internet Scenario: Humanity, its networks, computers, and databases become sufficiently effective to be considered a superhuman being.

The Biomedical Scenario: We directly increase our intelligence by improving the neurological operation of our brains.

The IA Scenario: We enhance human intelligence through human-to-computer interfaces-that is, we achieve intelligence amplification (IA).

The AI Scenario: We create superhuman artificial intelligence (AI) in computers.

In that event, I expect the singularity will come as some combination of the following:

I’ll stand by that claim, assuming we avoid the showstopping catastrophes-things like nuclear war, superplagues, climate crash-that we properly spend our anxiety upon.

So what do I mean by “fairly near” future? In my 1993 essay, “The Coming Technological Singularity,” I said I’d be surprised if the singularity had not happened by 2030. If it were to happen a million years from now, no big deal. Such a technological singularity would revolutionize our world, ushering in a posthuman epoch. I think it’s likely that with technology we can in the fairly near future create or become creatures of more than human intelligence. This is part of IEEE Spectrum’s SPECIAL REPORT: THE SINGULARITY

The singularity is nigh